Updated: Dec 18, 2025
The stock market has been unstable of late. See the chart below.
After a steady climb higher to the end of October, stock prices have stalled out in the last month and a half. Stocks declined in the first three weeks of November then rebounded over the three weeks ended December 12th. Over the last four days, prices have declined once again.
These up and down movements are the sign of an unstable market.
Most of the instability is coming from the tech sector, particular the AI trade. This next table compares the declines in the S&P 500 (the overall market) to the decline in the Nasdaq-100 (tech) to the change in the semiconductor sector (AI).
Market Performance Comparison
Period | S&P 500 | Nasdaq-100 | Semiconductor Stocks |
Oct. 29 – Nov. 20 | -5% | -8% | -12% |
Dec. 11 – Dec. 17 | -3% | -4% | -9% |
You can see that the semiconductor stocks have been leading the market lower in the two recent corrections. We are still in the middle of the latest correction so that story is still being written.
Investors were concerned about Oracle’s recent earnings report but there have also been positive reports from AI leaders like Google. The bubble has not popped yet, but it has stalled out of late.
The economy and the stock market are being driven by AI investments and spending from older affluent consumers sitting on large 401K and IRA accounts. There has been no slowdown in AI spending, but there has been some concern over the returns on the massive AI investments.
Unemployment continues to creep higher. Job growth has slowed but not stopped. The inflation report this morning was slightly below expectations. Once the tariff increases work their way through the economy, there is a good chance that inflation will drop to a more acceptable level. That could take three to six months.
The Fed is in a difficult decision and last week decided to lower interest rates by 0.25%. The market responded positively to today's inflation report as it appears to give the Fed more room to lower rates next year.
My stock markete valuation gauge indicates that the stock market (S&P 500) is now about 25% above its fair market value in mid December.
I do not trade based on market valuation levels and you should not either. It is just a reminder that you need a strategy in place to protect your savings in case we experience a bear market. Older investors in particular need loss protection during stock market downturns.
My investing system comes with built-in loss protection. It is designed to avoid most of the losses in bear market meltdowns. But it also produces big gains in bull markets. You can now invest in my system directly from your brokerage account. Click on this link to get on my calendar to learn how to start using my Growth and Safety investment system.
Stay Disciplined My Friends,
Phil
Disclaimers The Beyond Buy & Hold newsletter is published and provided for informational and entertainment purposes only. We are not advising, and will not advise you personally, concerning the nature, potential, value, or suitability of any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction, investment strategy or other matter. Beyond Buy & Hold recommends you consult a licensed or registered professional before making any investment decision.
Investing in the financial products discussed in the Newsletter involves risk. Trading in such securities can result in immediate and substantial losses of the capital invested. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Actual results will vary widely given a variety of factors such as experience, skill, risk mitigation practices, and market dynamics.
Most people intuitively understand the highs and lows of stock market investing, but when you assemble the data on stock market performance, the results can be startling.
Many of you know that I am a big fan of the best large-cap U.S. stock index funds. Let’s take another look at why I—and many other investment strategists—prefer these funds.
AVERAGE ANNUAL RETURNS
LAST 10 YRS.
|
|
S&P 500 | 15.3% |
NASDAQ | 18.4% |
NASDAQ-100 | 20.3% |
What’s not to like about returns like these? Over the long term, nothing beats them.
However, it’s important to recognize that the last decade was an extraordinarily strong period for stocks. We experienced an extended bull market with only one minor bear market.
So none of us should expect the next 20 or 30 years to look like the last 10. The longer-term averages—going back 50 years—provide a more reasonable expectation for the future. Here are my normalized assumptions going forward.
AVERAGE ANNUAL RETURNS
LAST 10 YRS. PROJECTED
|
|
|
S&P 500 | 15.3% | 9.5% |
NASDAQ | 18.4% | 11.5% |
NASDAQ-100 | 20.3% | 13.5% |
These expectations are still excellent long-term growth rates—the kind that can build substantial wealth with enough time to compound.
To reinforce my belief in U.S. large-cap index funds, let’s compare them to other common investments that are probably already in your portfolio.
AVERAGE ANNUAL RETURNS
LAST 10 YRS. PROJECTED
|
|
|
INTERNATIONAL FUND | 7.7% | 6.0% |
US SMALL CAP FUND | 9.0% | 8.0% |
INTERM BOND FUND | 2.2% | 3.0% |
60/40 PORTFOLIO | 8.4% | 6.5% |
Except for bonds, none of these other options are necessarily “bad”—they’re just nowhere near as strong as the S&P 500 or the Nasdaq.
Advisors and the investment industry push investors into these other funds to smooth out portfolio “volatility.” But the truth is that every one of these categories can lose significant money during major bear markets… even bonds.
This volatility—and the occasional bear market—is exactly why investing feels difficult. Smoothing out returns isn’t a real solution. It simply means accepting lower returns and slower portfolio growth.
Some investors still believe they can outperform the market by picking individual stocks. The temptation is understandable—who doesn’t want to catch the next Nvidia?
Unfortunately, the performance data on stock pickers is overwhelmingly poor. A tiny handful of professionals (mainly hedge fund managers) can outperform major indexes over long periods. But 99.8% of stock pickers fail to even match the S&P 500 over 20-year periods.
Many get lucky for 6–18 months, but those gains often disappear later.
Individual-stock portfolios also experience even greater downside volatility. If you enjoy the thrill, I recommend limiting stock-picking “fun money” to no more than 5% of your total portfolio.
Now let’s look at how volatility affects my favorite U.S. large-cap index funds.
It would be wonderful if these excellent returns arrived at a steady pace, but that’s not how markets work. During strong growth cycles, annual returns often come in around 20%—far above long-term averages. These gains are offset by dramatic losses during bear markets.
AVERAGE ANNUAL RETURNS
GROWTH CYCLE BEAR DECLINE AVERAGE
86% of time 14% of time
|
|
|
|
S&P 500 | 16.9% | -35.7% | 9.5% |
NASDAQ | 20.8% | -45.4% | 11.5% |
NASDAQ-100 | 23.1% | -45.4% | 13.5% |
A pie chart makes this even clearer. Using the Nasdaq-100 as an example:
- 86% of the time the Nasdaq is rising at an annualized rate of 23%
- 14% of the time it is dropping at an annualized rate of negative 45%
This is the reality of stock market investing: many strong years, punctuated by a steep decline roughly every six years. Thankfully, markets are in growth mode most of the time.
Despite this reality, the investment industry insists that investors use the same strategy regardless of market conditions—the classic “Buy & Hold & Suffer” approach.
I never thought this made sense. And because the industry offers no effective solution, I created one.
My Growth & Safety strategy isn’t perfect, but it works far better than anything offered by traditional investment services. Here’s how it navigates volatility:
AVERAGE ANNUAL RETURNS
GROWTH CYCLE BEAR DECLINE AVERAGE
|
|
|
|
S&P 500 | 16.9% | -35.7% | 9.5% |
NASDAQ | 20.8% | -45.4% | 11.5% |
NASDAQ-100 | 23.1% | -45.4% | 13.5%
|
MY SYSTEM | 20.1% | -11.0% | 15.8% |
My system can’t avoid all losses during market collapses—but it loses far less. Just as importantly, it captures most of the large gains during growth cycles.
Now compare this to how most retirees are invested. The majority are placed in some version of the classic 60/40 stock and bond portfolio because they’re told to “be conservative” after age 60.
AVERAGE ANNUAL RETURNS
GROWTH CYCLE BEAR DECLINE AVERAGE
|
|
|
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MY SYSTEM | 20.1% | -11.0% | 15.8% |
60/40 STRATEGY | 10.5% | -17.9% | 6.5% |
As a result, most retirees earn about 6.5% per year. They experience roughly half the gains during growth cycles (about 10.5% vs. 21% for the index funds) and half the losses in bear markets (about –17.9% vs. about -40% for the index funds).
This is exactly why I designed a smarter way to invest.
I wasn’t comfortable losing nearly 18% per year in bad markets with the so-called “safe” strategy. I also didn’t want to miss out on the powerful gains available during bull markets.
I prefer earning close to 20% per year in good times and losing only around 11% during the rare downturns.
You can have Growth & Safety in your retirement investments. Older investors need growth to keep pace with inflation—and they simply can’t afford devastating losses in deep bear markets.
If you want to rescue your retirement immediately, schedule a call using the link below. I’ll show you how you can start using my investment system directly through your brokerage account.
Stay Disciplined My Friends,
Phil
Disclaimers The Beyond Buy & Hold newsletter is published and provided for informational and entertainment purposes only. We are not advising, and will not advise you personally, concerning the nature, potential, value, or suitability of any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction, investment strategy or other matter. Beyond Buy & Hold recommends you consult a licensed or registered professional before making any investment decision.
Investing in the financial products discussed in the Newsletter involves risk. Trading in such securities can result in immediate and substantial losses of the capital invested. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Actual results will vary widely given a variety of factors such as experience, skill, risk mitigation practices, and market dynamics.
After a steady climb higher, stocks have declined over the last few weeks. The Nasdaq has declined about 4% and the S&P 500 has declined about 3%.
In the chart below you can see the significant gains since the low point in April following Liberation Day and the slight decline over the last few weeks.
On a year-to-date basis, the S&P 500 is up about 14% and the Nasdaq is up about 18% (not including dividends).
The recent pullback is being driven by a few things:
Anxiety over a potential AI bubble
Anxiety over the next Fed moves on interest rates
A big increase in interest rates in Japan
AI’s impact on the stock market is extremely volatile of late. One day the AI excitement drives the market higher and the next day AI fears drive the market lower.
We are still not receiving timely inflation or jobs data due to the government shutdown. The most recent jobs report was decent even though unemployment ticked up to 4.4%. All eyes will be on the next inflation update which will determine the Fed’s position on interest rates. At this point, it looks like even odds on whether the Fed cuts rates by another quarter of a percent or whether they hold steady.
Many stock market analysts believe that the low interest rates in Japan over the last decade have been a catalyst behind the long and powerful bull market of the last ten years. With rates rising in Japan, this source of cheap money will dry up and no longer be available to drive US stock prices higher.
My valuation gauge indicates that the stock market (S&P 500) is now about 24% above its fair market value in late November. At the beginning of November this guage was at 27% over fair market value. Both readings (+24% currently and +27% at the beginning of the month) are a cause for some concern.
I do not trade based on market valuation levels and you should not either. It is just a reminder that you need a strategy in place to protect your savings in case we experience a bear market. Older investors in particular need loss protection.
My investing system comes with built-in loss protection. It is designed to avoid most of the losses in bear market meltdowns. But it also produces big gains in bull markets. You can now invest in my system directly from your brokerage account. Click on this link to get on my calendar to learn how to start using my smarter way to invest.
Stay Disciplined My Friends,
Phil
Disclaimers The Beyond Buy & Hold newsletter is published and provided for informational and entertainment purposes only. We are not advising, and will not advise you personally, concerning the nature, potential, value, or suitability of any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction, investment strategy or other matter. Beyond Buy & Hold recommends you consult a licensed or registered professional before making any investment decision.
Investing in the financial products discussed in the Newsletter involves risk. Trading in such securities can result in immediate and substantial losses of the capital invested. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Actual results will vary widely given a variety of factors such as experience, skill, risk mitigation practices, and market dynamics.
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