As I wind down the Market Signals newsletter and transition to the Growth & Safety mutual fund, this feels like a good time to report on the actual performance of the program.
I launched the Market Signals newsletter in 2023 to give investors access to my investment system in a do-it-yourself format. Subscribers received email alerts generated by my automated model, outlining how aggressively to invest in the stock market (100%, 50%, or 0%) and which funds to own.
While the logistics of delivering recommendations by email were somewhat clunky, the system itself worked extremely well for clients.
One challenge with an email alert system is trade execution timing. I never knew exactly when—or even if—subscribers acted on the recommendations.
Another limitation was the need to restrict fund choices. During the last few years, I advised subscribers to invest only in an S&P 500 index fund when in the market. This was necessary because some subscribers did not have access to my preferred fund options on their investment platforms.
To calculate results since 2023, I assumed subscribers executed trades at the end-of-day price on the day my system generated a buy or sell signal.
RESULTS
Had clients followed my recommendations over the last few years, they would have generated average annual returns of 19.2% including dividends.
By comparison, the mutual fund version of my system—where I manage the investments directly—would have produced 22.0% average annual returns over the same period. The primary difference is that the mutual fund allows the use of additional investments such as the Nasdaq-100 at certain times.
Many clients have reported that they achieved higher investment returns in the last few years than at any other point in their investing lives. Several were able to retire early as a result.
It is important to note that stock market performance over the past three years has been above average. Most investors would not have been fully invested in stocks and would have followed industry best practices by allocating 40%–50% to bonds. As a result, their gains would have been roughly half of what my system produced.
This highlights a core advantage of my approach: we invest aggressively during growth cycles and exit the market when risk rises.
DETAILED RESULTS
Since 2023, the newsletter recommended being fully invested in an S&P 500 index fund approximately 90% of the time. There were only two brief periods when the system moved into money market funds.
My system is intentionally simple and disciplined. It trades infrequently and responds only when market cycles or longer-term trends shift.
The first exit occurred in late July 2024 during the Japanese interest rate and currency scare. The S&P 500 fell 9% and the Nasdaq declined 13% before rebounding sharply. The model briefly exited and then re-entered the market.
The second exit occurred in early 2025 during the tariff scare. The S&P 500 declined 18% while the Nasdaq fell 22%. The model exited on March 10 and re-entered by April 29, limiting losses to about 8% and fully recovering by mid-May.
These events illustrate how the system prioritizes capital protection while remaining positioned to capture long-term growth.
CONCLUSION
My investing system is quantitative and data-driven. It does not rely on predictions or emotions, but on probabilities.
It is not perfect and occasionally produces false alarms. However, these signals move capital into money market funds rather than creating losses.
This sell-first approach allows full participation during growth cycles while avoiding the worst damage in bear markets.
The most important takeaway for you is that there is a much better investing option out there for older investors. Older investors can't afford to aggressively invest in the stock market with no protection against losses in bear markets. Market crashes can destroy your retirement plans.
Using the asset allocation strategy (target date funds) will only produce annual returns of 6% to 7% per year and still leaves you exposed to big losses in market downturns.
I created this investing system because, like you, I was faced with these mediocre investing options provided by the investment industry.
Although the Market Signals newsletter is ending, I am excited to deliver even better results through the Growth & Safety mutual fund, where I manage the trading for you.
I would like to thank all of my loyal Market Signals subscribers and all of my followers for your support and encouragement. I could not have gotten to this point without you.
It gives me great pleasure to hear about how much money people have made using my system over the last few years.
If you are interested in obtaining high investment returns and protecting your money against losses with my new Growth & Safety mutual fund, schedule a quick call to learn how you can access the fund directly from your brokerage account. Click this link to schedule an appointment.
Stay Disciplined My Friends,
Phil
Disclaimers The Beyond Buy & Hold newsletter is published and provided for informational and entertainment purposes only. We are not advising, and will not advise you personally, concerning the nature, potential, value, or suitability of any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction, investment strategy or other matter. Beyond Buy & Hold recommends you consult a licensed or registered professional before making any investment decision.
Investing in the financial products discussed in the Newsletter involves risk. Trading in such securities can result in immediate and substantial losses of the capital invested. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Actual results will vary widely given a variety of factors such as experience, skill, risk mitigation practices, and market dynamics.
If you are in retirement or nearing retirement, it is important to keep up with changes to rules that affect your taxes and expenses. The rules change every year.
In 2026, several significant updates to Social Security, Medicare, retirement savings rules, taxes, and more will impact retirees and those nearing retirement.
These shifts can influence benefit amounts, healthcare costs, savings strategies, and tax obligations. Here's an overview of nine important differences for 2026.
Higher Retirement Savings Contribution Limits
The IRS has raised caps on contributions to help you build or maintain your nest egg.
For IRAs (traditional or Roth), the annual limit increases to $7,500 (up from $7,000 in 2025), with a catch-up contribution of $1,100 for those age 50 and older - allowing up to $8,600 total.
Workplace plans like 401(k)s, 403(b)s, and similar accounts see the employee deferral limit rise to $24,500 (up from $23,500). Catch-up rules vary:
Ages 50–59 or 64+: Additional $8,000 (total up to $32,500).
Ages 60–63: Additional $11,250 (total up to $35,750, if your plan allows the "super catch-up").
These higher limits provide more opportunity to save tax-advantaged dollars, especially if you're playing catch-up.
New Senior Tax Deduction for Many Retirees
A fresh provision from recent legislation offers up to $6,000 deducted from taxable income for individuals age 65 and older (at the end of 2025). This can reduce or eliminate taxes on Social Security benefits for qualifying people.
Eligibility: Full deduction for modified adjusted gross income (MAGI) up to $75,000 (single) or $150,000 (married filing jointly). It phases out gradually up to $175,000 (single) or $250,000 (joint) and disappears above those levels. This temporary break applies through the 2028 tax year.
Increased Standard Deduction Amounts
The standard deduction rises with inflation (plus an extra boost from legislation for prior years carrying forward). For 2026 tax returns:
Married filing jointly: $32,200.
Single or married filing separately: $16,100.
Head of household: $24,150.
For those 65+: Add an extra amount (around $2,000–$3,200 depending on status) on top of the base. This lowers taxable income for millions who don't itemize.
Social Security COLA Increase
Benefits rise by 2.8% starting with January 2026 payments (SSI recipients see it from late December 2025). The average monthly retirement benefit increases by about $56, from roughly $2,015 to $2,071. Survivor benefits see similar proportional boosts.
This adjustment reflects inflation trends from late 2024 to late 2025. While helpful, its real value depends on 2026 inflation—if prices rise faster, purchasing power could still feel squeezed.
Medicare Part B Premium and Deductible Hikes
The standard Part B premium (covering doctor visits and outpatient care) jumps nearly 10% to $202.90 monthly (up from $185). The annual Part B deductible rises to $283 (from $257).
Premiums deduct from Social Security checks for most, offsetting part of the COLA gain by about $18 monthly. Higher earners face income-related surcharges. Medicare Advantage and Part D averages may dip slightly, but the out-of-pocket prescription cap rises to $2,100.
Full Retirement Age Milestone
For those born in 1959 (reaching key ages in 2026), full retirement age (FRA) is 66 years and 10 months. For anyone born in 1960 or later, FRA settles at 67 permanently.
Claiming before FRA reduces benefits permanently; delaying past FRA (up to 70) increases them. This incremental rise from 1983 legislation is now fully in effect for newer retirees.
Updated Earnings Test Limits
If you claim benefits before FRA and keep working, earnings above certain thresholds temporarily reduce payments. In 2026:
Under FRA all year: Limit $24,480 ($1 withheld for every $2 over).
Reaching FRA in 2026: Limit $65,160 for pre-FRA months ($1 withheld for every $3 over).
Once you hit FRA, no reductions apply, and withheld amounts are recalculated into higher future benefits.
Penalty-Free Withdrawals for Long-Term Care Insurance
Under SECURE 2.0 rules (effective late 2025 onward), those under 59½ can withdraw up to $2,500 annually from IRAs, 401(k)s, etc., without the usual 10% early penalty to pay qualified long-term care insurance premiums. Withdrawals remain taxable as income. This supports planning for potential future care needs.
Higher Qualified Charitable Distribution Limit
If you're 70½ or older, you can make QCDs directly from an IRA to charity, excluding the amount from taxable income (up to $111,000 in 2026, up from $108,000). QCDs count toward required minimum distributions (starting at age 73) and avoid increasing taxable income—ideal for charitable-minded retirees.
These updates highlight the evolving retirement landscape in 2026. Review your situation, adjust savings or claiming strategies to maximize benefits and minimize costs.
Stay Disciplined My Friends,
Phil
Disclaimers The Beyond Buy & Hold newsletter is published and provided for informational and entertainment purposes only. We are not advising, and will not advise you personally, concerning the nature, potential, value, or suitability of any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction, investment strategy or other matter. Beyond Buy & Hold recommends you consult a licensed or registered professional before making any investment decision.
Investing in the financial products discussed in the Newsletter involves risk. Trading in such securities can result in immediate and substantial losses of the capital invested. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Actual results will vary widely given a variety of factors such as experience, skill, risk mitigation practices, and market dynamics.
Income investing is a popular strategy among older investors because it is seen as being less risky than growth investing.
Income investors typically buy stocks that pay high dividends, interest paying bonds and Certificates of Deposit issued by banks. The dividends and interest payments are a dependable and steady source of income.
An income investor today can create a portfolio paying 5% in annual dividends and interest, for example. With a $2 million account balance and a 5% yield, an income investor receives $100,000 per year in interest and dividend payments. If they can live off $8,300 per month in retirement, those payments provide all the cash they need and they never have to touch the $2 million principal. This income investor would not have to worry about their account declining in value due to market volatility. Sounds appealing, right?
A growth investor on the other hand looks for investments that have the highest annual investment returns. The best returns are found in the stock market. People who invest in S&P 500 index funds can expect 10% annual investment returns in the long-term (10 years or more). Those returns are not consistent, however. The stock market very rarely goes up by 10% in any particular year.
Results for the last five years illustrate this point. The average annual return for the S&P 500 was 14.5% for the last five years, but only one year (2025) was even close to the average.
2025 17.9%
2024 24.9%
2023 26.3%
2022 -18.2%
2021 28.8%
Income investors don’t like the risk associated with the volatility of the stock market.
Most investments other than cash or guaranteed income funds carry the risk of short-term losses, because all financial markets are volatile.
In 2022 and 2023, investors learned that bonds can and do lose value in the short-term. Those investors were probably not expecting to suffer through short-term losses in their bonds of roughly 16% in 2022 and 2023. As of early 2026, bond prices have still not recovered those losses.
Dividend paying stocks are still subject to the ups and downs of the stock market. Dividend paying stocks are about 20% less volatile than growth stocks but that still could mean declines of 30% or more in a bear market.
There is a big difference, however, between short-term volatility—which produces short-term losses—and bad investments that lose money in the long term.
Long-term losses or permanent losses happen when someone invests in an individual stock and that company goes out of business or loses significant portions of revenue to a competitor. Permanent long-term losses can destroy your retirement plans.
The last risk factor—the risk of low long-term investment returns— is the risk that’s not talked about enough. Bonds do provide a little less short- term loss risk than stocks. But that lower risk of short-term loss comes at a cost: investors are dramatically increasing the risk that they will not create an investment account with enough money to retire comfortably and securely. And investors need to know that lower short-term risk does not equal no risk. Bonds lost a lot of money in 2022 and in 2008.
In our example of the retirement investor with a $2,000,000 portfolio earning 5% per year, their income investing plan does not protect them against inflation. They might be able to live off the interest and dividends in the first year of retirement, but with inflation that budget could be 25% higher in ten years. Just like the growth investor they would be forced to tap into the principal balance of their investments.
Let’s compare a growth investor to an income investor with the same starting account balance of $2,000,000 at age 65 entering retirement. Both start with the same annual income needs of $100,000 per year that increases by 2% per year for inflation.
Growth | Income | |
Investor | Investor | |
Average Annual Returns | 10.0% | 5.0% |
Balance at Age 75 | $ 3,469,050 | $ 1,905,028 |
Balance at Age 85 | $ 6,903,059 | $ 1,570,263 |
This is why I never understood income investing. In my mind, the risk of low returns outweighs the risk of short-term volatility.
Income investing is a little easier. Growth investing requires more effort for cash management in retirement to minimize the impact of stock market volatility. But that effort is well worth it – over $5,000,000 in our example.
My Growth & Safety investment system provides even higher returns and lowers downside volatility by protecting against losses in severe bear markets.
Stay Disciplined My Friends,
Phil
Disclaimers The Beyond Buy & Hold newsletter is published and provided for informational and entertainment purposes only. We are not advising, and will not advise you personally, concerning the nature, potential, value, or suitability of any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction, investment strategy or other matter. Beyond Buy & Hold recommends you consult a licensed or registered professional before making any investment decision.
Investing in the financial products discussed in the Newsletter involves risk. Trading in such securities can result in immediate and substantial losses of the capital invested. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Actual results will vary widely given a variety of factors such as experience, skill, risk mitigation practices, and market dynamics.
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