RESULTS FROM MY SYSTEM

As I wind down the Market Signals newsletter and transition to the Growth & Safety mutual fund, this feels like a good time to report on the actual performance of the program.

I launched the Market Signals newsletter in 2023 to give investors access to my investment system in a do-it-yourself format. Subscribers received email alerts generated by my automated model, outlining how aggressively to invest in the stock market (100%, 50%, or 0%) and which funds to own.

While the logistics of delivering recommendations by email were somewhat clunky, the system itself worked extremely well for clients.

One challenge with an email alert system is trade execution timing. I never knew exactly when—or even if—subscribers acted on the recommendations.

Another limitation was the need to restrict fund choices. During the last few years, I advised subscribers to invest only in an S&P 500 index fund when in the market. This was necessary because some subscribers did not have access to my preferred fund options on their investment platforms.

To calculate results since 2023, I assumed subscribers executed trades at the end-of-day price on the day my system generated a buy or sell signal.

RESULTS

Had clients followed my recommendations over the last few years, they would have generated average annual returns of 19.2% including dividends.

By comparison, the mutual fund version of my system—where I manage the investments directly—would have produced 22.0% average annual returns over the same period. The primary difference is that the mutual fund allows the use of additional investments such as the Nasdaq-100 at certain times.

Many clients have reported that they achieved higher investment returns in the last few years than at any other point in their investing lives. Several were able to retire early as a result.

It is important to note that stock market performance over the past three years has been above average. Most investors would not have been fully invested in stocks and would have followed industry best practices by allocating 40%–50% to bonds. As a result, their gains would have been roughly half of what my system produced.

This highlights a core advantage of my approach: we invest aggressively during growth cycles and exit the market when risk rises.

DETAILED RESULTS

Since 2023, the newsletter recommended being fully invested in an S&P 500 index fund approximately 90% of the time. There were only two brief periods when the system moved into money market funds.

My system is intentionally simple and disciplined. It trades infrequently and responds only when market cycles or longer-term trends shift.

The first exit occurred in late July 2024 during the Japanese interest rate and currency scare. The S&P 500 fell 9% and the Nasdaq declined 13% before rebounding sharply. The model briefly exited and then re-entered the market.

The second exit occurred in early 2025 during the tariff scare. The S&P 500 declined 18% while the Nasdaq fell 22%. The model exited on March 10 and re-entered by April 29, limiting losses to about 8% and fully recovering by mid-May.

These events illustrate how the system prioritizes capital protection while remaining positioned to capture long-term growth.

CONCLUSION

My investing system is quantitative and data-driven. It does not rely on predictions or emotions, but on probabilities.

It is not perfect and occasionally produces false alarms. However, these signals move capital into money market funds rather than creating losses.

This sell-first approach allows full participation during growth cycles while avoiding the worst damage in bear markets.

The most important takeaway for you is that there is a much better investing option out there for older investors. Older investors can't afford to aggressively invest in the stock market with no protection against losses in bear markets. Market crashes can destroy your retirement plans.

Using the asset allocation strategy (target date funds) will only produce annual returns of 6% to 7% per year and still leaves you exposed to big losses in market downturns.

I created this investing system because, like you, I was faced with these mediocre investing options provided by the investment industry.

Although the Market Signals newsletter is ending, I am excited to deliver even better results through the Growth & Safety mutual fund, where I manage the trading for you.

I would like to thank all of my loyal Market Signals subscribers and all of my followers for your support and encouragement.  I could not have gotten to this point without you.

It gives me great pleasure to hear about how much money people have made using my system over the last few years. 

If you are interested in obtaining high investment returns and protecting your money against losses with my new Growth & Safety mutual fund, schedule a quick call to learn how you can access the fund directly from your brokerage account.  Click this link to schedule an appointment.

Book Appointment

Stay Disciplined My Friends,

Phil

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Disclaimers The Beyond Buy & Hold newsletter is published and provided for informational and entertainment purposes only. We are not advising, and will not advise you personally, concerning the nature, potential, value, or suitability of any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction, investment strategy or other matter. Beyond Buy & Hold recommends you consult a licensed or registered professional before making any investment decision.

Investing in the financial products discussed in the Newsletter involves risk. Trading in such securities can result in immediate and substantial losses of the capital invested. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Actual results will vary widely given a variety of factors such as experience, skill, risk mitigation practices, and market dynamics.