These are trying times for individual investors. We reached bear market territory on the S&P 500 on Monday. Seeing your life savings drop by 20% in less than two months is difficult for all of us.
Stock market collapses like this one seemingly come out of nowhere. They happen for all sorts of different reasons:
Financial System Collapse (2008)
Overvaluation Bubbles Bursting (2001)
Pandemics (2020)
Inflation Spikes (2020)
Global Trade Wars (2025)
Nobody can predict the timing or the cause, but market collapses happen about once every five or six years on average. They can be very painful emotionally and financially.
The average price decline of bear markets is 37% with some as high as 55% or as low as 25%. The dot-com crash lasted 7 years and the Covid crash only lasted six months. The average length of a bear market is 4.5 years. That is a long time to wait for your account to get back to break even.
I give a lot of investment advice so I thought it would be interesting for you to hear how I manage my own money in times like this.
Prior to 2019, I struggled mightily with my investing strategy. Like many of you I tried and failed with all of the approaches pushed by the investment professionals. I was very frustrated with the lack of effective solutions. I hired and fired all of the big and small money management firms. I didn’t think it was a good deal to pay them a 1% fee to create a Target Date fund that I could build myself.
I wanted the high long-term returns of the stock market, but I couldn’t stand the old “Buy & Hold” approach. It made no sense to me to sit and watch my money drop by 40% and to simply wait five years for the market to recover. I painfully recall losing half my money in 2008.
It is still mind-boggling to me that Buy & Hold is the best strategy that the investment industry has to offer.
I bet you don’t feel great right now having the industry tell you to just “Ride it Out”.
I was forced to create my Market Signals system back in 2019 because the industry has no investing solution that provides both high growth AND protection against losses. They offer high growth strategies that come with large losses in bear markets OR they offer low growth strategies that are exposed to less risk and fewer losses. Nobody offers the best of both worlds – until now.
As soon as I developed and tested my new and better investing system, I began deploying it for my money and my family’s money. I invest every dollar of my own money by following the Market Signals system. I am not aware of another approach that provides market beating returns with safety and protection in bear markets.
I have been using it since 2020 and first benefitted by using it during the Covid crash. The Covid crash was almost too easy a test for my system. It was like cheating. The market dropped by 34% in a straight line over about one month. It then went on to rebound very quickly and also in a straight line.
The graph below shows where my system sold out of the stock market and where it bought back in. In a bear market, my system ends up selling high and buying low – the opposite order of the traditional buy low and sell high mantra. But it works just the same, only in reverse order. Our system actually makes a profit in bear markets for this reason.
By the time that the S&P 500 returned back to even six months later, my system was actually showing a gain of 28%. Market Signals gained 40% in 2020 compared to the S&P 500 which gained 16% for the full year. We were only invested in the S&P 500 so the extra gains (24%) were all generated by Market Signals trades during the bear market collapse and recovery.
As I mentioned earlier, 2020 was unusually easy for my Market Signals system. Not all bear markets are this straightforward or quick. But they all follow a similar pattern of rapid declines, and gradual but steady recoveries.
THE CURRENT SITUATION IN 2025
The Market Signals system had me sell all of my stock investments in early March and I have been sitting with my funds parked in a Money Market fund since then. All of my customers received the exact same instructions. We are all earning 4% while we watch the market decline.
Earning 4% is well below the Market Signal’s long-term goal of 13% per year, but it is much better than losing 20%. I can also sleep well at night knowing my life savings are protected in this crazy time. I believe my Market Signals customers have the same peace of mind that I do.
I hope they also feel good about the 45% percent gains that Market Signals generated over the previous two years (2023 and 2024). Market signals was pretty much fully invested in the S&P 500 in 2023 and 2024. We can be comfortable being 100% invested in the best stock market index funds BECAUSE we have protection built in with Market Signals. Without having this downside protection it would not make sense to be 100% invested in the stock market.
With five years of actual trading results and 100 years’ worth of back testing, I have proven that you can “have your cake and eat it too” with investing. The industry would tell you otherwise but consider the source.
The industry would say (and does say) that we are “Timing the Market” and that nobody can time the market. We are not timing the market. We agree that nobody can time the market. We don’t get out at the exact top or get back in at the exact bottom. See the Covid Crash graph. We are not perfect. But in a bear market we just need to get out before the worst of the decline occurs and get back in before the rebound has gone too far.
It is not rocket-science although the math we use does look like something used by NASA.
Using industry terms, what we are doing is called Tactical Asset Allocation. Tactical Asset Allocation is commonly used in the industry. We just do it differently. TAA occurs when stock exposure is increased or decreased based on market conditions. Or when money is shifted from large cap stocks to small cap stocks. For example, this year people have been moving money out of the US stock market and into the European market based on regulatory changes in the US.
The difference between the way we use TAA and others use TAA is that we use a series of computer algorithms to make the changes. Our computer algorithms were developed using actual stock market data for the last 100 years. The industry uses TAA when they “expect” the performance of individual market segments to change. They use predictions. And their predictions have not been back tested or tested in any way.
Projections and predictions in the financial markets are wrong most of the time. Even if they are correct, most people get the timing wrong. Industry professionals will use a fancy analysis and fancy logic to create faith in their assumptions.
I believe in data and not assumptions. This stuff is too hard to predict.
YOUR OPTIONS
You should not sell your stocks unless you have a disciplined and proven approach to get back into the stock market when it rebounds. You can’t do this based on emotions or gut instinct. You should stay the course if you don’t have a system like Market Signals to help you get back in.
My system works because it is quantitative and disciplined and because it has been tested extensively. Flying by the seat of your pants doesn't work with investing.
I used to make these moves emotionally or based on instinct and Buy & Hold beats undisciplined ways to get in and out of the market. Reacting emotionally is worse than Buy & Hold as painful as Buy & Hold can be.
Your other option is to sign up for our Market Signals newsletter. It only costs $39.95 per month with no commitment or obligation. You can cancel at any time and for any reason.
We have customers who have avoided losing 10% of their life savings in the last month. At only a cost of $39.95 a month, that is a pretty good deal. You can sign up now and learn more by clicking here.
Stay Disciplined My Friends,
Phil
Disclaimers The Beyond Buy & Hold newsletter is published and provided for informational and entertainment purposes only. We are not advising, and will not advise you personally, concerning the nature, potential, value, or suitability of any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction, investment strategy or other matter. Beyond Buy & Hold recommends you consult a licensed or registered professional before making any investment decision.
Investing in the financial products discussed in the Newsletter involves risk. Trading in such securities can result in immediate and substantial losses of the capital invested. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Actual results will vary widely given a variety of factors such as experience, skill, risk mitigation practices, and market dynamics.
Note: This is an article about the economic and stock market impact of the recent tariffs introduced by the United States government. The information and opinions have nothing to do with politics. There are many outlets that you can turn to for that. I hope to provide more depth to the financial impacts beyond the headlines – something missing from the discussion.
The stock market obviously did not like the Administration’s new tariff plan. The market has been drifting lower in anticipation of the new tariffs, but it really cratered yesterday after the plan was unveiled.
What might happen next in the stock market?
I believe the short-term future for stocks is dependent upon the real game plan for the Administration. Nobody outside the Administration knows their ultimate objectives but there are only two possibilities. One scenario could lead to good outcomes and the other could be bad.
Better scenario – This is just a negotiating tactic by the Administration to get better trade deals for the United States. This has been the pattern for this Administration in the past and the announcement yesterday used the phrase “open up markets overseas for US made products.” Opening up foreign markets to US products only happens with more favorable export terms for the US. Under this scenario, the tariffs will only be in place temporarily – until better trade terms can be negotiated.
Bad news scenario – The Administration is adding new tariffs to increase manufacturing activity in the United States and to bring back manufacturing jobs. If this is the case, the Administration plans on keeping these tariffs in place for the long-term. In the announcement, the Administration mentioned “bringing back manufacturing jobs in the US.
I say that possibility number 2 is a bad news scenario because economic history is very clear on this topic. These new tariffs will lead to:
Higher inflation – This would be bad because inflation had been dropping to more acceptable levels and higher prices could lead to less economic activity.
Retaliation – If the tariffs are to remain in place for the long-term, other countries will raise tariffs on US goods exported to those countries. This could lead to a spiral down in global economic activity.
Things could get really bad under scenario number 2. The US and global economies would likely fall into recession and stagflation would become a possibility. Under scenario 2, the stock market could fall significantly more.
MY GUESS
I have to believe that the Administration’s goal is Scenario number 1 – a negotiating tactic. I can’t believe that the Administration really believes that using tariffs to bring back manufacturing could work. The economic pain would be extreme if the tariffs stay in place for a long time.
Even if they are following Scenario 2, I believe the administration will be forced to back off most of the tariffs. As long as they get a few wins with some trade deals, they can claim victory and begin lowering the tariffs.
Unfortunately, I also think that the strength of the US’s negotiating position is going to decline over time. When the economy begins to decline and the stock market continues to fall, other countries will call the bluff.
WHAT TO DO
If you don’t have a disciplined system in place to avoid getting crushed in stock market meltdowns, now would be a good time to sign up for our Market Signals newsletter. The current decline could turn into one of those ugly and devastating bear markets.
Our Market Signals customers got out of the stock market four weeks ago. Our average customer has avoided $40,000 in losses over the last month. Our average customer also gained over $450,000 by using our system in 2023 and 2024. The service only costs $39.95 per month. I would say that is a pretty good return on investment.
You can sign up now by CLICKING HERE and get the peace of mind of having your life savings protected against the potential of additional losses.
There is a better way to invest.
Stay Disciplined My Friends,
Phil
Disclaimers The Beyond Buy & Hold newsletter is published and provided for informational and entertainment purposes only. We are not advising, and will not advise you personally, concerning the nature, potential, value, or suitability of any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction, investment strategy or other matter. Beyond Buy & Hold recommends you consult a licensed or registered professional before making any investment decision.
Investing in the financial products discussed in the Newsletter involves risk. Trading in such securities can result in immediate and substantial losses of the capital invested. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Actual results will vary widely given a variety of factors such as experience, skill, risk mitigation practices, and market dynamics.
Investing is hard. Investing is frustrating. Investing is even more difficult when fear guides your investment decisions.
If you are in retirement or near retirement, you know that stock market declines can change your financial future significantly. Yet, you also need to generate high investment returns to support your income in retirement.
The risk of stock market meltdowns is the price of admission for investors. No one ever knows the timing or the magnitude of recessions or bear markets, but you know they will happen at some point. Those risks are ever present even if they don’t happen very often.
How you deal with the fear of investing in the stock market is one of the biggest determinants of your success. Fear and greed cause most people to make poor decisions.
Guessing at what is going to happen or listening to someone predicting what is going to happen rarely works out. Even if you get lucky and reduce your stock exposure at the right time, you will lose because you won’t get back into stocks at the right time.
Holding bonds in your portfolio is not the answer either despite what the industry professionals say. The data is very clear on this. Bonds will only drag down the investment returns of your portfolio and they don’t always provide downside protection. Bonds lost as much as stocks in 2022 and they have still not recovered three years later.
Holding different kinds of stock market investments won’t protect you. When the broad stock market declines it affects all stock investments. Small cap, mid cap and international stocks all take a hit.
The investment industry’s only solution to this problem is the tired, old Buy & Hold strategy. They tell you to just “ride it out”. They are correct when they say stocks will recover, but sometimes that can take seven year or more. And watching your life savings get cut in half is painful. And older investors don’t always have time on their side.
What is one to do?
The right way to handle this challenge is having a proven strategy and a disciplined process to investing.
This is why I created the Beyond Buy & Hold system.
The best investors have a disciplined approach to owning the best funds and a proven quantitative system to avoid the worst of bear markets. Our MARKET SIGNALS investing tool gives investors just that. It puts the odds in your favor. It captures the large stock market gains in up markets and protects your savings in down markets.
The stock market is in an uptrend 85% of the time, growing at double digit rates. You want to be aggressively invested (100%) most of the time. Our customers generated huge returns in 2023 and 2024 as the S&P gained 53% over those two years. Our customers were fully invested in the S&P 500 96% of that time. 50% growth over two years dramatically improves your retirement fund.
Having a proven system to sidestep the bear market crashes gives investors the confidence to invest aggressively in the stock market. Our customers are not worried about the current stock market volatility because they are already protected against big losses in ugly bear markets. We began moving money out of stocks in early March.
You don’t have to worry when you know you have a system to avoid the damage caused by bear market crashes. Imagine investing in total confidence and without fear of the next market collapse.
If you want to learn more about Market Signals, click the link below to get a copy of a free pdf that explains how Market Signals works and why it is a better way to invest your retirement savings.
You have nothing to lose and potentially millions to gain.
Stay Disciplined My Friends,
Phil
Disclaimers The Beyond Buy & Hold newsletter is published and provided for informational and entertainment purposes only. We are not advising, and will not advise you personally, concerning the nature, potential, value, or suitability of any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction, investment strategy or other matter. Beyond Buy & Hold recommends you consult a licensed or registered professional before making any investment decision.
Investing in the financial products discussed in the Newsletter involves risk. Trading in such securities can result in immediate and substantial losses of the capital invested. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Actual results will vary widely given a variety of factors such as experience, skill, risk mitigation practices, and market dynamics.
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