STOCK MARKET RECAP JUNE 2025

The market survived Phase One of the Tariff wars intact.  After the big decline in stock prices in March and April, stock prices have climbed all the way back to even for the year. As of Friday June 13th, the S&P 500 was up 1.9% for the year and the Nasdaq was up 0.6%.

In the chart below you can see the extreme price volatility in April and the steady move higher over the last six weeks.

Unfortunately, the period of shifting tariff policies is not over although the stock market thinks it is over.  The various 90-day pauses are not up yet and there have been no major trade deals completed.  The stock market believes that the Administration will back off of their most extreme tariff positions but it remains to be seen.

Economic news has been mostly positive over the last month. 

Inflation reports have been positive although the impact of the tariffs has not shown up in the data yet.  July and August inflation readings will be the first indications of the impact of tariffs on inflation.  The Fed is waiting on those readings to make their decisions on interest rates.

Unemployment claims have been rising gradually but the overall numbers are still at levels that indicate a healthy job market. 

Corporate profit reports for the First Quarter have been positive which has contributed to the stock market rebound in May and June.

The Israel-Iran conflict caused a slight pullback in stock prices at the end of last week.  Hopefully, cooler heads will prevail, and the conflict can be contained. 

It was a wild ride to nowhere in March, April and May. Discipline and patience paid off over the last two months.  Following a disciplined system in times of volatility always produces better results than letting emotions drive your investing decisions. 

Stay Disciplined My Friends,

Phil

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