STOCK MARKET RECAP JUNE 2026

Stock prices have drifted lower over the last month and volatility has increased.  Technology stocks have been the most volatile of late.

The Nasdaq has decline by 4.4% over the last month while the S&P 500 dropped 2.3%.

The chart below shows the recent erratic behavior of prices particularly in the Nasdaq.  Over the last month, the Nasdaq had a decline of 7%, followed by a gain of 5% and then a drop of 4% (the blue line in the graph).  That is a lot of volatility and an indication of instability. 

Despite the recent decline in stock prices, on a year-to-date basis the S&P 500 is up 7% and the Nasdaq has climbed 9% this year.

The chart for the year shows the decline in prices in March due to the war in the Middle East. 

At the beginning of April, Wall Street began to look past the situation in the Middle East and prices climbed rapidly in April and May. 

The cease fire in Iran caused oil to drop by about $40 per barrel in the last month and a half.  This should help slow down the recent rise in inflation.  Today’s inflation report came in at 3.4% excluding food and energy – the highest level in three years. 

Bullishness about corporate earnings is driving the stock market higher.  Corporate earnings saw above average increases last year and the market is expecting even higher profit growth in 2026. 

The expected interest rate adjustments from the Fed have changed significantly in the last three months. Previously, the market was expecting one or two rate cuts this year from the Fed. Due to inflationary pressures, the market is now expecting one or two rate increases.

SUMMARY

The bull market in stocks is still running at present.  Volatility has increased recently particularly in the tech sector, but most indices are sitting on solid gains over the last six months.

Oil prices have decreased significantly in the last few weeks, and interest rates seem to have stabilized.  Corporate profits continue to show very strong growth. 

In the late stages of the bull market in the late 1990’s where the Nasdaq tripled in a few years, volatility was very high. The Nasdaq rose and fell many times by more than 30% up and down. 

It appears that this bull still has room to run. 

Stay Disciplined My Friends,

Phil

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