Updated: Feb 18
Buy low and sell high has been the mantra for stock market investing forever. It makes sense, right?
If we get into the stock market at a low point and sell when stock prices are much higher, we can lock in those gains.
This saying applies well to buying individual stocks but not so much for stock index funds.
Most of you know by now, that individual stock pickers are not able to beat the performance of a simple S&P 500 index fund. Why spend all the time and effort associated with managing a stock portfolio made up of individual stocks when you can get better investment returns by simply owning the best index funds?
With index funds, the industry experts tell us to buy and hold these funds forever. Other than dollar cost averaging into the fund, there is not an opportunity to buy low and sell high.
THE BUY AND HOLD STRATEGY
A core principle supporting the mediocre investing strategies of the financial services industry is “Buy and Hold.” Advisors argue that since the stock market always goes up in the long term (very true) that we all must simply “ride out” the bear market crashes and wait for the eventual rebound or recovery. I like to call this the “Buy and Hold and Suffer” strategy.
Buy and hold is a form of disciplined investing, as opposed to emotional investing, and I must acknowledge that disciplined investing is a good thing. Fear, if not held in check by discipline, causes people to buy into the equity markets at the top (fear of missing out) and sell at the bottom (fear of getting wiped out). This is consistently the worst mistake that most stock market investors make.
So, buy and hold is an improvement over the worst possible investing strategy—but should we settle for “better than the worst”?
The other benefit of buy and hold investing is that it teaches people to think long-term for their stock market investments. Buy and hold is a strategy for the long term. Many people mistakenly focus too much on short-term results from their stock market investments.
Simply “riding it out” does nothing to alleviate the financial or emotional suffering from bear market collapses. To watch your savings drop by 40% in a matter of months is extremely painful. Waiting six or seven years for your investment portfolio to get back to break-even could destroy your retirement plans, particularly for older investors.
The financial services industry has offered no viable solutions to the bear market problem. Their asset allocation approach offers very little downside protection in stock market downturns. Bonds lost as much money as stocks in 2022. And individual stock portfolios often lose more money in big declines than the broad stock market (S&P 500).
The S&P 500 Index is THE benchmark for investment performance. The S&P 500 has produced average annual gains of 10% per year over the last 100 years, 50 years, 30 years and 20 years.
While the long-term returns of the S&P 500 are excellent and consistent, the annual results are anything but consistent. The stock market is highly volatile. The market can drop by as much as 50% in a downturn.
Most investors can’t stomach these kinds of losses, so they are forced to invest in conservative investments like bonds that generate low growth rates.
A BETTER WAY TO INVEST
Most of you know by now that my Growth and Safety investing system utilizes the best index funds and that it sidesteps the ugly bear markets.
The industry has never offered an effective way to do this, so I was forced to create one. It was not easy, but I love a challenge.
My system is a data-driven computer model using millions of data points spanning 100 years of stock market history.
The model uses probabilities to measure stock market risk levels on a daily basis.
When the model detects changes in risk levels or changes in market cycles, the investment strategy adjusts accordingly.
The Growth and Safety system uses data over feelings and probabilities over predictions. Emotions are your enemy when it comes to investing. Markets are irrational in the short term which makes them impossible to predict over the next month, season or year.
When the stock market is in a growth cycle which is the case most of the time, we invest aggressively in these index funds. When risk levels become elevated, we start moving out of the stock market and into conservative interest-bearing assets like money market funds and treasury bills. And when the “coast is clear”, we begin moving back into the stock market.
The stock market moves in two distinct cycles – a growth cycle and a bear market decline cycle.
The good news is that the stock market is in a growth cycle most of the time (86% of the time). In the growth cycle, the S&P 500 posts annual gains of around 17% - much higher than its long-term average of 10% per year.
The bad news is that in the bear market decline cycle produces annual declines or around 37%. Even though the bear declines only represent 14% of market trading days, they are extremely painful.
Comparing my Growth & Safety system’s performance to the S&P 500 in the growth and bear decline cycles shows you why and how my system posts such strong results.
Losing less in major market declines generates higher overall returns. It is simple math.
My model can outperform the S&P 500 in growth cycles because we selectively use higher growth index funds like the Nasdaq-100 when the market is in a strong growth cycle.
GROWTH | BEAR | ||
CYCLE | DECLINE | AVERAGE | |
86.0% | 14.0% | ||
S&P 500 | 17.5% | -36.0% | 10.0% |
MY SYSTEM GROWTH & SAFETY | 19.0% | -11.0% | 14.8% |
Because losses from the Growth and Safety system are much smaller, recovery times are faster. A 10% loss requires an 11% gain to get back to even while a 40% loss requires a 66% gain.
My clients are very happy with the high investment returns, but I think they appreciate the Safety part of my system even more. Having peace of mind that your life savings are protected allows retirement investors to sleep better at night.
SELL HIGH AND BUY LOW
Not only does my system avoid big losses, in most bear markets my system makes a profit from the volatility.
The 2020 Covid crash was the perfect scenario for my Growth & Safety model. The S&P 500 started dropping in late February and hit bottom in late March after falling about 34%. The trend reversed quickly at the end of March and gained back all those losses by late August.
My Growth & Safety model started getting out of the stock market on February 24th and was completely out of the market on February 28th – avoiding most of the big losses that happened in March.
The sales to get out of the S&P 500 index fund (IVV) happened at prices between $323.83 and $295.81. After the S&P 500 reversed course in late March and climbed back to $275.00 on April 8th, my system triggered a buy to get fully back into the market.
We sold high and bought back in at a lower price – making a profit as a result. This is how my approach uses the “buy low and sell high” mantra in reverse. It is great avoiding the large losses that happen in severe bear markets, but it is even better when you can turn that volatility into a profit.
To keep the 2020 analysis simpler, I compared the S&P 500 results to my system using only the S&P 500. Since technology stocks were doing so well in 2020 (everything going online due to Covid), my model was also invested in the Nasdaq-100 (QQQ). As a result, the actual results for 2020 from my investing system were much higher.
Because we sold our stock investments at a higher point early in the downturn, we had a much higher level of cash to buy back in at the lower prices. When you ride the collapse all the way to the bottom, you don’t have any extra cash to buy back in at the lower prices. In fact, you have much less money which means you need huge percentage gains to get back to break even.
As a result, my Growth & Safety system posted a 30% gain for the year 2020 compared to the 16% gain for the S&P 500 (not including dividends).
The concept is very simple. The math and the algorithms that support the model are quite complex.
Many others have tried to do this, but I have not found any with appealing results. The others use a variety of approaches, but they typically rely on standard industry trending statistics that are based on moving averages (MACD, RSI, etc.).
My analysis proved that using standard moving averages is not effective. I was forced to create my own trending and momentum statistics to make my model work. It was a tremendous amount of work to create my own proprietary momentum variables, but it was well worth it.
SUMMARY
The investment services industry leaves you with a limited set of mediocre investment options and they charge high fees for these poor solutions.
Cycling through financial advisors will not get you anywhere. Some people go through three or four different financial advisors and still end up with mediocre investing results.
Despite what the industry has told you, you can have Growth AND Safety when it comes to your retirement investments.
You do not have to settle for mediocre 6% to 7% returns, nor do you have to endure devastating losses by simply “riding it out” during markets crashes. Most people know intuitively that the “Buy & Hold & Suffer” strategy doesn’t make any sense.
It is possible to get higher investment returns and lower your risk.
By potentially doubling your investment returns, you can dramatically increase your income in retirement – without taking on more risk.
If you think you and your family could benefit from higher returns and less risk, schedule an appointment by clicking on the link below
The purpose of the call is to explain how you can start improving your investment results right away and to see if my system is a good fit for you. We will provide more information about this better way to invest and answer all your questions.
There are a couple of ways that you can utilize my Growth & Safety system right from your own brokerage account. You don’t have to send your money to some advisor you don’t know. You maintain complete control of your money.
Stay Disciplined My Friends,
Phil
Disclaimers The Beyond Buy & Hold newsletter is published and provided for informational and entertainment purposes only. We are not advising, and will not advise you personally, concerning the nature, potential, value, or suitability of any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction, investment strategy or other matter. Beyond Buy & Hold recommends you consult a licensed or registered professional before making any investment decision.
Investing in the financial products discussed in the Newsletter involves risk. Trading in such securities can result in immediate and substantial losses of the capital invested. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Actual results will vary widely given a variety of factors such as experience, skill, risk mitigation practices, and market dynamics.
As I wind down the Market Signals newsletter and transition to the Growth & Safety mutual fund, this feels like a good time to report on the actual performance of the program.
I launched the Market Signals newsletter in 2023 to give investors access to my investment system in a do-it-yourself format. Subscribers received email alerts generated by my automated model, outlining how aggressively to invest in the stock market (100%, 50%, or 0%) and which funds to own.
While the logistics of delivering recommendations by email were somewhat clunky, the system itself worked extremely well for clients.
One challenge with an email alert system is trade execution timing. I never knew exactly when—or even if—subscribers acted on the recommendations.
Another limitation was the need to restrict fund choices. During the last few years, I advised subscribers to invest only in an S&P 500 index fund when in the market. This was necessary because some subscribers did not have access to my preferred fund options on their investment platforms.
To calculate results since 2023, I assumed subscribers executed trades at the end-of-day price on the day my system generated a buy or sell signal.
RESULTS
Had clients followed my recommendations over the last few years, they would have generated average annual returns of 19.2% including dividends.
By comparison, the mutual fund version of my system—where I manage the investments directly—would have produced 22.0% average annual returns over the same period. The primary difference is that the mutual fund allows the use of additional investments such as the Nasdaq-100 at certain times.
Many clients have reported that they achieved higher investment returns in the last few years than at any other point in their investing lives. Several were able to retire early as a result.
It is important to note that stock market performance over the past three years has been above average. Most investors would not have been fully invested in stocks and would have followed industry best practices by allocating 40%–50% to bonds. As a result, their gains would have been roughly half of what my system produced.
This highlights a core advantage of my approach: we invest aggressively during growth cycles and exit the market when risk rises.
DETAILED RESULTS
Since 2023, the newsletter recommended being fully invested in an S&P 500 index fund approximately 90% of the time. There were only two brief periods when the system moved into money market funds.
My system is intentionally simple and disciplined. It trades infrequently and responds only when market cycles or longer-term trends shift.
The first exit occurred in late July 2024 during the Japanese interest rate and currency scare. The S&P 500 fell 9% and the Nasdaq declined 13% before rebounding sharply. The model briefly exited and then re-entered the market.
The second exit occurred in early 2025 during the tariff scare. The S&P 500 declined 18% while the Nasdaq fell 22%. The model exited on March 10 and re-entered by April 29, limiting losses to about 8% and fully recovering by mid-May.
These events illustrate how the system prioritizes capital protection while remaining positioned to capture long-term growth.
CONCLUSION
My investing system is quantitative and data-driven. It does not rely on predictions or emotions, but on probabilities.
It is not perfect and occasionally produces false alarms. However, these signals move capital into money market funds rather than creating losses.
This sell-first approach allows full participation during growth cycles while avoiding the worst damage in bear markets.
The most important takeaway for you is that there is a much better investing option out there for older investors. Older investors can't afford to aggressively invest in the stock market with no protection against losses in bear markets. Market crashes can destroy your retirement plans.
Using the asset allocation strategy (target date funds) will only produce annual returns of 6% to 7% per year and still leaves you exposed to big losses in market downturns.
I created this investing system because, like you, I was faced with these mediocre investing options provided by the investment industry.
Although the Market Signals newsletter is ending, I am excited to deliver even better results through the Growth & Safety mutual fund, where I manage the trading for you.
I would like to thank all of my loyal Market Signals subscribers and all of my followers for your support and encouragement. I could not have gotten to this point without you.
It gives me great pleasure to hear about how much money people have made using my system over the last few years.
If you are interested in obtaining high investment returns and protecting your money against losses with my new Growth & Safety mutual fund, schedule a quick call to learn how you can access the fund directly from your brokerage account. Click this link to schedule an appointment.
Stay Disciplined My Friends,
Phil
Disclaimers The Beyond Buy & Hold newsletter is published and provided for informational and entertainment purposes only. We are not advising, and will not advise you personally, concerning the nature, potential, value, or suitability of any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction, investment strategy or other matter. Beyond Buy & Hold recommends you consult a licensed or registered professional before making any investment decision.
Investing in the financial products discussed in the Newsletter involves risk. Trading in such securities can result in immediate and substantial losses of the capital invested. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Actual results will vary widely given a variety of factors such as experience, skill, risk mitigation practices, and market dynamics.
If you are in retirement or nearing retirement, it is important to keep up with changes to rules that affect your taxes and expenses. The rules change every year.
In 2026, several significant updates to Social Security, Medicare, retirement savings rules, taxes, and more will impact retirees and those nearing retirement.
These shifts can influence benefit amounts, healthcare costs, savings strategies, and tax obligations. Here's an overview of nine important differences for 2026.
Higher Retirement Savings Contribution Limits
The IRS has raised caps on contributions to help you build or maintain your nest egg.
For IRAs (traditional or Roth), the annual limit increases to $7,500 (up from $7,000 in 2025), with a catch-up contribution of $1,100 for those age 50 and older - allowing up to $8,600 total.
Workplace plans like 401(k)s, 403(b)s, and similar accounts see the employee deferral limit rise to $24,500 (up from $23,500). Catch-up rules vary:
Ages 50–59 or 64+: Additional $8,000 (total up to $32,500).
Ages 60–63: Additional $11,250 (total up to $35,750, if your plan allows the "super catch-up").
These higher limits provide more opportunity to save tax-advantaged dollars, especially if you're playing catch-up.
New Senior Tax Deduction for Many Retirees
A fresh provision from recent legislation offers up to $6,000 deducted from taxable income for individuals age 65 and older (at the end of 2025). This can reduce or eliminate taxes on Social Security benefits for qualifying people.
Eligibility: Full deduction for modified adjusted gross income (MAGI) up to $75,000 (single) or $150,000 (married filing jointly). It phases out gradually up to $175,000 (single) or $250,000 (joint) and disappears above those levels. This temporary break applies through the 2028 tax year.
Increased Standard Deduction Amounts
The standard deduction rises with inflation (plus an extra boost from legislation for prior years carrying forward). For 2026 tax returns:
Married filing jointly: $32,200.
Single or married filing separately: $16,100.
Head of household: $24,150.
For those 65+: Add an extra amount (around $2,000–$3,200 depending on status) on top of the base. This lowers taxable income for millions who don't itemize.
Social Security COLA Increase
Benefits rise by 2.8% starting with January 2026 payments (SSI recipients see it from late December 2025). The average monthly retirement benefit increases by about $56, from roughly $2,015 to $2,071. Survivor benefits see similar proportional boosts.
This adjustment reflects inflation trends from late 2024 to late 2025. While helpful, its real value depends on 2026 inflation—if prices rise faster, purchasing power could still feel squeezed.
Medicare Part B Premium and Deductible Hikes
The standard Part B premium (covering doctor visits and outpatient care) jumps nearly 10% to $202.90 monthly (up from $185). The annual Part B deductible rises to $283 (from $257).
Premiums deduct from Social Security checks for most, offsetting part of the COLA gain by about $18 monthly. Higher earners face income-related surcharges. Medicare Advantage and Part D averages may dip slightly, but the out-of-pocket prescription cap rises to $2,100.
Full Retirement Age Milestone
For those born in 1959 (reaching key ages in 2026), full retirement age (FRA) is 66 years and 10 months. For anyone born in 1960 or later, FRA settles at 67 permanently.
Claiming before FRA reduces benefits permanently; delaying past FRA (up to 70) increases them. This incremental rise from 1983 legislation is now fully in effect for newer retirees.
Updated Earnings Test Limits
If you claim benefits before FRA and keep working, earnings above certain thresholds temporarily reduce payments. In 2026:
Under FRA all year: Limit $24,480 ($1 withheld for every $2 over).
Reaching FRA in 2026: Limit $65,160 for pre-FRA months ($1 withheld for every $3 over).
Once you hit FRA, no reductions apply, and withheld amounts are recalculated into higher future benefits.
Penalty-Free Withdrawals for Long-Term Care Insurance
Under SECURE 2.0 rules (effective late 2025 onward), those under 59½ can withdraw up to $2,500 annually from IRAs, 401(k)s, etc., without the usual 10% early penalty to pay qualified long-term care insurance premiums. Withdrawals remain taxable as income. This supports planning for potential future care needs.
Higher Qualified Charitable Distribution Limit
If you're 70½ or older, you can make QCDs directly from an IRA to charity, excluding the amount from taxable income (up to $111,000 in 2026, up from $108,000). QCDs count toward required minimum distributions (starting at age 73) and avoid increasing taxable income—ideal for charitable-minded retirees.
These updates highlight the evolving retirement landscape in 2026. Review your situation, adjust savings or claiming strategies to maximize benefits and minimize costs.
Stay Disciplined My Friends,
Phil
Disclaimers The Beyond Buy & Hold newsletter is published and provided for informational and entertainment purposes only. We are not advising, and will not advise you personally, concerning the nature, potential, value, or suitability of any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction, investment strategy or other matter. Beyond Buy & Hold recommends you consult a licensed or registered professional before making any investment decision.
Investing in the financial products discussed in the Newsletter involves risk. Trading in such securities can result in immediate and substantial losses of the capital invested. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Actual results will vary widely given a variety of factors such as experience, skill, risk mitigation practices, and market dynamics.
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